Why Scottsdale Buyers May Need 33% Down to Stay Conforming

At the Scottsdale median of $1.25 million, putting $417,250 down — roughly 33.4% — keeps the base loan at or below the $832,750 baseline conforming limit. That's the financing decision I'd want figured out before the offer is written — not after.

Scottsdale single-family inventory is down 11.5% year over year. Greater Phoenix metro, measured over the same window, is up 1.3%. Those two numbers are moving in opposite directions at the same time. My read: Scottsdale is tightening relative to the broader metro — worth factoring into offer strategy — but I wouldn't automatically translate tighter supply into pressure on buyers to move fast.

Here's the tension worth sitting with. Scottsdale active days on market is sitting at 90 days, and that figure is up 4.7% year over year. Inventory can tighten and homes can still take a long time to sell — those measure different things. Inventory tells us how many homes are available. Days on market tells us how long listings have been sitting on the market. Fewer homes available while homes are still sitting longer doesn't tell a simple story. I wouldn't frame this as a frantic market to a client.

Back to the financing piece. At $1.25 million, a buyer has two real paths: put down roughly 33.4% to stay conforming at $832,750, or put down less and move into jumbo financing. The evidence gives us the down-payment figure — it doesn't tell us which path is cheaper or better structured for a given buyer. That depends on the specific loan products available to them. What it does tell us is that the two paths are structurally different and worth pricing out side by side before the offer is written.

The question worth working through with your buyer before you write the number: which path makes more sense given what they're trying to accomplish — preserving cash, lowering the monthly payment, or something else? The answer shapes the offer structure. Get the loan comparison on paper first.